Sorry

Sorry for not posting my picks last season. Trust me, you didn't want them anyway. I have a new netbook now and it will be easier to post. I will try to do a better job in 2009.

If anyone has any suggestions or wants to discuss picks, let me know.


Peter

NFL Football Picks for Week 1

NFL season is upon us, and besides Bowl season, it's the most wonderful time of the year. Last year I had a strong start and a disappointing finish, but did wind up with more than I started with. Here are this weeks winners:

1. Indianapolis - 6 1/2 over New Orleans

2. Kansas City + 3 1/2 over Houston

3. Green Bay + 3 1/2 over Philadelphia

4. Minnesota - 3 1/2 over Atlanta

5. Miami + 3 1/2 over Washington

6. New England - 6 1/2 over New York Jets

7. Tennessee + 6 1/2 over Jacksonville

8. Denver - 3 1/2 over Buffalo

9. Pittsburgh - 4 1/2 over Cleveland

10. Carolina + 1 1/2 over St. Louis

11. Seattle - 6 1/2 over Tampa Bay

12. Chicago + 6 1/2 over San Diego

13. Oakland - 1 1/2 over Detroit

14. New York Giants + 5 1/2 over Dallas

15. Baltimore + 2 1 /2 over Cincinnati

16. Arizona + 3 1/2 over San Francisco

New Season

Just a quick note to all those (and there aren't many) who missed my blog throughout the year. Football season is back and I'll be making weekly posts with my NFL picks. Remember, I'm better than just flipping a coin.

Also, this year I'll try to focus more on fantasy football rather than college football. Not that there is anything wrong with college football, and I've spent many Saturdays glued to my television, I'd like to focus more on the NFL this year.

NFL Football picks for week 17 (12/30/06 - 12/31/06)

This is the last regular season post. Overall, so far, I've done pretty well, and since I'm over 50%, I cannot complain. Here is one last shot to go undefeated for the season:


1. New York Giants - 2 1/2 over Washington

2. Detroit + 12 1/2 over Dallas

3. Oakland + 12 1/2 over New York Jets

4. St. Louis - 2 1/2 over Minnesota

5. Cleveland + 4 1/2 over Houston

6. Carolina - 3 1/2 over New Orleans

7. New England + 3 1/2 over Tennessee

8. Tampa Bay - 3 1/2 over Seattle

9. Cincinnati - 6 1/2 over Pittsburgh

10. Kansas City - 2 1/2 over Jacksonville

11. Buffalo + 9 1/2 over Baltimore

12. Miami + 9 1/2 over Indianapolis

13. Arizona + 13 1/2 over San Diego

14. Atlanta + 7 1/2 over Philadelphia

15. San Francisco + 10 1/2 Denver

16. Chicago - 2 1/2 over Green Bay

Happy New year, and happy Festivus (for the rest of us).

NFL Football picks for week 15 (12/14/06 - 12/17/06)

Sorry for the spotty posts. I'll try to improve this for the rest of the season and especially the playoffs. Here are this week's winners:


1. San Francisco + 9 1/2 over Seattle

2. Atlanta + 3 1/2 over Dallas

3. Miami + 1 1/2 over Buffalo

4. Minnesota - 3 1/2 over New York Jets

5. Green Bay - 5 1/2 over Detroit

6. Chicago - 13 1/2 over Tampa Bay

7. Jacksonville - 3 1/2 over Tennessee

8. Cleveland + 11 1/2 over Baltimore

9. Washington + 9 1/2 over New Orleans

10. New England - 11 1/2 over Houston

11. Pittsburgh - 3 1/2 over Carolina

12. Denver - 2 1/2 over Arizona

13. New York Giants - 5 1/2 over Philadelphia

14. St. Louis + 2 1/2 over Oakland

15. San Diego - 8 1/2 over Kansas City

16. Indianapolis - 3 1/2 over Cincinnati

NFL Football picks for week 12 (11/23/06 - 11/27/06)

Happy Thanksgiving. Too bad both games this Thursday are crappy.

The picks:

1. Miami - 3 1/2 over Detroit

2. Tampa Bay + 11 1/2 over Dallas

3. Denver - 1 1/2 over Kansas City

4. New York Jets - 6 1/2 over Houston

5. Arizona + 6 1/2 over Minnesota

6. New Orleans + 3 1/2 over Atlanta

7. Carolina - 4 1/2 over Washington

8. Pittsburgh + 3 1/2 over Baltimore

9. San Francisco + 6 1/2 over St. Louis

10. Jacksonville - 3 1/2 over Buffalo

11. Cincinnati - 3 1/2 over Cleveland

12. San Diego - 13 1/2 over Oakland

13. New York Giants - 3 1/2 over Tennessee

14. New England - 3 1/2 over Chicago

15. Indianapolis - 9 1/2 over Philadelphia

16. Green Bay + 10 1/2 over Seattle


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NFL Football picks for week 10 (11/12/06 - 11/13/06)

Last week was respectable with 7 correct, but the late games ruined my week. Here are some of the things that I am sure of so far this season:

1. The Patriots will win this Sunday vs the Jets. They haven't lost two in a row in a long time.







2. The Raiders have no offensive line. I had to turn the game off it was so bad. Looks like Andrew Walter is getting QB lessons from Drew Bledsoe.

3. My fantasy team keeps putting up big numbers, but not big enough to win.

This week, as always, my goal is to go undefeated. The picks of the week are:

1. Indianapolis - 12 1/2 over Buffalo

2. Baltimore - 7 1/2 over Tennessee

3. Cleveland + 8 1/2 over Atlanta

4. Minnesota - 5 1/2 over Green Bay

5. Kansas City - 1 1/2 over Miami

6. Detroit - 6 1/2 over San Francisco

7. Houston + 10 1/2 over Jacksonville

8. New England - 10 1/2 over New York Jets

9. San Diego - 1 1/2 over Cincinnati

10. Washington + 7 1/2 over Philadelphia

11. Denver - 9 1/2 over Oakland

12. St. Louis + 4 1/2 over Seattle

13. New Orleans + 4 1/2 over Pittsburgh

14. Arizona + 7 1/2 over Dallas

15. Chicago + 3 1/2 over New York Giants

16. Carolina - 9 1/2 over Tampa Bay

NFL Football picks for week 9 (11/05/06 - 11/06/06)

This week is opposite week. Aside from a few favorites that I usually pick, I mixed it up this week and went against by better judgment for many of my picks. The NFL is full of surprises, and sometimes, two wrongs do make a right. Here is my attempt to fake out the gambling gods:

1. Chicago - 13 1/2 over Miami

2. Detroit + 5 1/2 over Atlanta

3. Washington + 3 1/2 over Dallas

4. Houston + 13 1/2 over the New York Giants

5. Buffalo - 3 1/2 over Green Bay

6. Kansas City + 2 1/2 over St. Louis

7. Cincinnati + 3 1/2 over Baltimore

8. Tennessee + 9 1/2 over Jacksonville

9. New Orleans - 1 1/2 over Tampa Bay

10. Minnesota - 5 1/2 over San Francisco

11. Pittsburgh - 3 1/2 over Denver

12. Cleveland + 12 1/2 over San Diego

13. New England - 3 1/2 over Indianapolis

14. Oakland + 7 1/2 over Seattle


Too bad the Jets have off...

NFL Football picks for week 8 (10/29/06 - 10/30/06)

Sorry I missed a week and that these are a little late. Hope this helps everyone make their picks. The goal is to go undefeated (this almost happened a few weeks ago).

1. Tennessee - 3.5 over Houston

2. Green Bay - 3.5 over Arizona

3. New Orleans - 2.5 over Baltimore

4. Chicago - 16.5 over San Francisco

5. Kansas City - 6.5 over Seattle

6. Atlanta + 4.5 over Cincinnati

7. Tampa Bay + 9.5 over New York Giants

8. Philadelphia - 6.5 over Jacksonville

9. St. Louis + 9.5 over San Diego

10. New York Jets + 2.5 over Cleveland

11. Indianapolis + 2.5 over Denver

12. Oakland + 9.5 over Pittsburgh

13. Carolina - 5.5 over Dallas

14. New England - 2.5 over Minnesota

NFL Football picks for week 6 (10/15/06 - 10/16/06)

Last week was my best week yet. I posted a 10-2-2 record, which I am very happy with (83% winners). This week, due to my success and a little superstition, I will post in the same format with no commentary. You'll notice this week I went with mostly away teams.

1. Detroit + 1 1/2 over Buffalo

2. Houston + 13 1/2 over Dallas

3. New York Giants + 3 1/2 over Atlanta

4. Seattle - 3 1/2 over St. Louis

5. Tennessee + 10 1/2 over Washington

6. Carolina + 3 1/2 over Baltimore

7. Philadelphia - 3 1/2 over New Orleans

8. Cincinnati - 5 1/2 over Tampa Bay

9. Miami + 2 1/2 over New York Jets

10. Kansas City + 7 1/2 over Pittsburgh

11. San Diego - 10 1/2 over San Francisco

12. Denver - 15 1/2 over Oakland

13. Chicago - 10 1/2 over Arizona


Suicide pick of the week: Denver

NFL Football picks for week 5 (10/08/06 - 10/09/06)

Last week was a good week, but it could have been better. There were 4 games that came down to the last few minutes, and none of them went my way. Overall, I did post 8 wins, 5 losses and 1 push. This week, due to the demands of my career, I will only post my picks for winners without my usual commentary. Here goes:

1. Chicago - 11 over Buffalo

2. Cleveland + 8 over Carolina

3. Detroit + 6 over Minnesota

4. New England - 9 1/2 over Miami

5. Green Bay + 3 over St. Louis

6. New Orleans - 7 1/2 over Tampa Bay

7. Tennessee + 18 1/2 over Indianapolis

8. New York Giants - 4 over Washington

9. Kansas City - 2 1/2 over Arizona

10. Jacksonville - 6 1/2 over New York Jets

11. San Francisco + 4 over Oakland

12. Philadelphia - 2 1/2 over Dallas

13. San Diego - 3 over Pittsburgh

14. Denver - 4 1/2 over Baltimore


My suicide pick of the week: Chicago

NFL Football picks for week 4 (10/01/06 - 10/02/06)

Last week wasn't so great, but it wasn't so bad either. I had 7 wins, 5 losses, and 2 pushes. That brings my overall season record ATS (against the spread) to 25-19-2. I'm pretty happy that I'm above .500, but as always, I will strive for an undefeated week. This week is kinda tough though.

Arizona at Atlanta - 7

The rumor by ESPN that said Leinart would be starting this week turned out to be false. I feel bad for Kurt Warner. He went from MVP to someone who can't make anything happen, despite having some of the best offensive weapons to work with. Will this rumor motivate him? It probably will, but Atlanta will bounce back from a Monday night defeat in the Superdome to win this one.

PICK: Atlanta - 7


Dallas at Tennessee + 9 1/2

Even with Owens out this week (I'm not going to comment with my opinion of his 'suicide attempt'), the Cowboys should rout the Titans. Coming off a bye week, they will be ready. On the other hand, maybe this is the week Vince Young gets in the game, as Kerry Collins looks worse every time he plays. The spread is pretty big, but Dallas will overcome.

PICK: Dallas - 9 1/2


Indianapolis at New York Jets + 9

Surprisingly, the Jets haven't looked that bad so far this year. Pennington looks accurate and their receivers are playing well. All that will change this weekend. The Jets simply don't match up well vs the Colts on offense or defense. I don't think this one will even be close, as the Jet's secondary is no match for the Colts receiving corps.

PICK: Indianapolis - 9


Miami at Houston + 3 1/2

Miami is struggling, but so is Houston. Both teams are so bad, I don't even want to waste space writing about them. Go with the home team and the points.

PICK: Houston + 3 1/2


Minnesota at Buffalo -1

The Bills started off right last week, then blew it at home vs the Jets, while the Vikings kept it close with the Bears. I don't expect the Bills to lose two in a row at home, but I do think this one will be close. Both are middle of the pack type teams that are evenly matched, but the Bills are starting to play a little better.

PICK: Buffalo -1


New Orleans at Carolina - 7 1/2

The Saints looked very good at their Superdome homecoming, but can they keep the momentum going? So far, the Panthers have looked poor, but now that playmaker Steve Smith is back in the lineup, they will get inspired. A touchdown is a lot to give here, and I think this game will be close.

PICK: New Orleans + 7 1/2


San Diego at Baltimore + 2 1/2

The Chargers will be well rested coming off a bye week and the Ravens won a very close one vs a bad Cleveland team. The Ravens problem, as it's always been, is they can't score. Their D is great, but the Chargers offense will put points on the board. The team with more points wins the game. The Ravens can't score. Get it?

PICK: San Diego - 2 1/2


San Francisco at Kansas City - 7

KC also comes off a bye week well rested and ready to go. Even without Trent Green, KC can still score against an improving 49 team. But with Vernon out and Frank Gore questionable, KC will be damned if they go to 0-3 playing at home.

PICK: Kansas City - 7


Detroit at St Louis - 5 1/2

Neither team is really playing that well. The Rams won two despite how badly they played. The Lions have gotten close, but no cigar yet. This will be their week as Mike Martz returns to visit his former team with a vengeance. He will do his best to prove his critics wrong this week.

PICK: Detroit + 5 1/2


Cleveland at Oakland + 3

Two bad teams that don't deserve to be written about. Go with the home team getting points, regardless of how pathetic they've looked.

PICK: Oakland + 3


Jacksonville at Washington +3

The Jaguars looked good last week, but came up short when playing the Colts. They won't repeat this vs a so-so Redskins team. The Jags defense will not be as generous as the Texans were last week where the Skins won their first game. This week will be low scoring, with the Jags on top.

PICK: Jacksonville - 3


New England at Cincinnati - 6

No comment considering how bad the Pats looked last week. But as a lifelong fan, I have to pick them. The last time I didn't pick them in a pool, I was in middle school. Not picking them cost me a lot of money as I lost that week by one game.

PICK: New England + 6


Seattle at Chicago - 3 1/2

The Seahawks will not be the same without Shawn Alexander as Chicago will shut down their running game forcing them to pass. Seattle also proved they can give up a lot of points as they did vs the Giants last week. It will be a good game, but the Bears are the better team here.

PICK: Chicago - 3 1/2


Green Bay at Philadelphia - 11

11 is a lot to give even though the Eagles are the better team and are playing at home. Brett Favre will find a way to perform better on Monday night as the ESPN broadcasters praise him no matter what he does.

PICK: Green Bay + 11


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NFL Football picks for week 3 (9/24/06 - 9/25/06)

Let's see if I can beat 9 wins this week. To be honest, I'd be thrilled with 9 this week considering this is the first week where four teams have a bye, so there are only 14 games instead of 16. Here goes:

New York Giants at Seattle - 3 1/2

Eli looked good last week, but only in the 4th quarter. It turns out that is all that mattered. Seattle really hasn't had a tough test yet, but I think they edge the G-men this week. It's going to be close, but the Seahawks will win it.

PICK: Seattle - 3 1/2


Carolina at Tampa Bay + 3

I normally like home dogs, and I'm not going to stray on this one. Both teams are desperate for a win. Simms has looked like crap so far this season, and Carolina just can't seem to get going on offense. Since both teams are struggling, I'll go with the one getting points.

PICK: Tampa Bay +3


Chicago at Minnesota +3

Another home dog, but this time I'm going against my rule (more like a guideline). Chicago has looked great so far and they are finally getting what they are paying for in Rex Grossman. Do I even have to mention how great the defense is playing? I know the Vikings are 2-0 so far, but I'm not so sure how they will hold up vs. a good team. Both of their wins were against struggling teams.

PICK: Chicago -3


Green Bay at Detroit -6 1/2

This is the week the Lions begin to prove me right (see one of my previous posts concerning this year's NFL predictions). The Packers are a week team that got shut out in week one and lost in the 4th quarter in week two. The Lions haven't won yet either, but they did hold the Seahawks to no touchdowns. As long as Roy Williams doesn't guarantee anything, I'm going with the Lions.

PICK: Detroit - 6 1/2


Washington at Houston + 4

Clinton Portis says he will play this week, but seeing is believing. Even if he plays, which he probably will, I'm still not sold on the health of his shoulder. Without him, the Skins will struggle as they have the first two weeks of the season. I'll go with the home dog again as the Texans will post their first win for the season.

PICK: Houston + 4


Cincinnati at Pittsburgh - 2

With Big Ben recovering from surgery and Polamalu having a few aches and pains, the Steelers didn't look too impressive vs the Jaguars last week. They return to Pittsburgh to play the Bengals, who also have some injury issues. However, the big three from Cincy look fine (Palmer, Johnson, and Johnson) as the Bengals pull off a close one.

PICK: Cincinnati + 2


Jacksonville at Indianapolis - 7

The Jags defense looked great last week on Monday night. Their offense - not so hot. Here's how it is going to play out: The Jags will shut down the Colts running game, forcing them to throw. They'll connect and score on a few, but not enough to cover the spread. Fred Taylor could have a big game.

PICK: Jacksonville + 7


New York Jets at Buffalo - 5 1/2

The Jets gave the Patriots a scare last week, and the Bills looked ok vs the Dolphins. Both teams are about evenly matched. The Jets are better at QB and WR, but the Bills have the better running game. When both teams are evenly matched, go with the points. Parity really does exist in the NFL.

PICK: New York Jets + 5 1/2


Tennessee at Miami - 10

This is a big spread for a team that looks awful last week vs the Bills. The Titans won't be winning any awards for their stellar play either, but 10 is too much to give. Maybe Young will get the ball and work some magic. Collins is done. To be fair about the spread, the Titans did get their asses kicked by San Diego, but they might keep this one close.

PICK: Tennessee + 10


Baltimore at Cleveland + 6 1/2

I can't go with the home dog here, just based on how good the Ravens are playing. They are starting to look like the Super Bowl Ravens: a dominating defense and an offense that does just enough to win. The Browns don't have too much going their way these days. Droughns is a little banged up and Frye looks overwhelmed.

PICK: Baltimore - 6 1/2


Philadelphia at San Francisco + 6

The Eagles are coming off that overtime loss vs the Giants and probably want to take out their frustrations on someone, and who better than the 49ers. Although not the doormat they were last year, with Alex Smith improving and Antonio Bryant playing well. Frank Gore is also showing why he was the starter at Miami (University) over McGahee. Philly goes to California with something to prove this week.

PICK: Philadelphia - 6


St. Louis at Arizona - 4 1/2

The Rams are struggling a little bit and Orlando Pace being injured doesn't help. I still like the weapons Arizona has on offense. This week, the Cardinals get their act together and win by more than a touchdown.

PICK: Arizona - 4 1/2


Denver at New England - 6 1/2

The Broncos look bad and Plummer looks worse. As long as they stick with him, they will lose games. He has zero touchdowns so far this season and four interceptions. This week, he is playing away against a defense that knows how to scheme. The Patriots are going to pick on him all day.

PICK: New England - 6 1/2


Atlanta at New Orleans + 3 1/2

I know this is the grand opening of the Superdome since the hurricane, and the Saints will be all fired up. In addition, they are getting points (as they should) vs a pretty impressive Atlanta squad. With all the emotion going into this one, it's hard to see the Saints flop.

PICK: New Orleans + 3 1/2


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NFL Football picks for week 2 (9/17/06 - 9/18/06) - Results and recap

Again, I was 9-7 on the week. I'm beginning to see a trend here.

A few notes about this past Sunday's games:

• How can a QB look amazing in the pre-season, but look like a rookie in the regular season? I guess I should know the answer to this, but I was expecting better things out of Dante Culpepper.
• How dumb is Carolina for trying to get cute with the kickoff return in overtime? It wound up costing them the game.
• I thought Detroit was better than that. Maybe the Bears are for real. I'll tell you this though: I picked up Rex Grossman for my fantasy team this morning.
• Green Bay's season just sunk to new levels with a home loss.
• I'd say the same about the Raiders, but they were already at rock bottom.
• Eli looked good in the 4th quarter, as usual. I wish he'd play like that the whole game.
• San Diego is the real deal. So much for a QB with no experience.
• The Jaguars might be the most underrated team in the game.

This week: 9-7 56.25%

Overall: 18-14 56.25%

NFL Football picks for week 2 (9/17/06 - 9/18/06)

A record of 9-7 isn't a bad way to start the season, but it's not amazing either. I'll give it another go for week two:


Buffalo at Miami - 6 1/2

Neither team looked too good in week one, but Buffalo did give the Patriots a scare. However, Buffalo's defense may suffer if Spikes doesn't play. Miami wins their home opener after a tough loss to the defending champs.

PICK: Miami - 6 1/2


Carolina at Minnesota + 2

The Panthers bounce back after the Falcons made them look like fools. The Vikings won on Monday, but didn't look that special. The Redskins were just worse. I usually like home dogs, but the Panthers have a history of playing well on the road.

PICK: Carolina -2


Cleveland at Cincinnati - 10 1/2

I'll make this one simple. The Bengals looked good last week and the Browns looked bad. The Bengals have owned this series lately and their defense will shut down a poor Cleveland offense.

PICK: Cincinnati - 10 1/2


Detroit at Chicago - 8 1/2

Lots of big spreads this week. Green Bay made the Bears look better than they are and I was actually impressed with the Lions last week holding the defending NFC champion Seahawks to exactly zero touchdowns. Are the cowardly Lions showing they can play?

PICK: Detroit + 8 1/2


Houston at Indianapolis - 13

I don't enjoy laying this many points, but this is just a mismatch. The Colts, playing at home, against a struggling team seems to be a lock, but I've been burned before when things seem this obvious. I'm still debating this one, but for now, I'm going with Indy.

PICK: Indianapolis - 13


New Orleans at Green Bay + 2

I know that traditionally, Green Bay doesn't lose at home. And since they are getting points here, this is a sure thing, right? Wrong. The Packers got shut out by the Bears last week, and the Saints didn't look so bad. Reggie Bush is the real deal, and the stupid decisions of Aaron Brooks don't haunt this team anymore. The have a pro bowl QB leading them.

PICK: New Orleans - 2


New York Giants at Philadelphia - 3

Philly looked good last week as McNabb threw for three TD's and looked like an all pro again. The Giants got slightly outplayed by the Colts, but looked pretty good too. This is one of the best games of the week to watch on TV. I think this one will be close, so I am going to go with the team getting some points, plus I think the Giants will do what it takes to avoid starting the season at 0-2.

PICK: New York Giants +3


Oakland at Baltimore - 11 1/2

Even though the Ravens beat the Bucs pretty bad last week, I'm still not convinced. Their defense looked like the Ravens of a few years ago. The Raiders just might be the worst team in football, looking like a High School team as they got embarrassed Monday night vs. The Chargers. I say the Raiders bounce back enough to come within the spread.

PICK: Oakland + 11 1/2


Tampa Bay at Atlanta - 5 1/2

Tampa is due to bounce back after getting beat by the Ravens last week. Chris Simms finally starts to look like his father this weekend as the Bucs have owned this series recently. With John Abraham listed as questionable, I think the Bucs pull this one out.

PICK: Tampa Bay + 5 1/2


Arizona at Seattle - 7

The Seahawks didn't look too impressive last weak against the Lions, but I think that had more to do with the improving Lions. This week they are at home and have won the last few vs. the Cardinals. Although the Cardinals are looking better, the still get beat on the road this week.

PICK: Seattle - 7


St. Louis at San Francisco +3

3? Only 3? The Rams are a middle of the pack type of team and the 49ers are a bad team. The Rams defense is better than the Cardinals defense, whom the 49ers put up 27 points against. Don't look for a repeat offensive performance by Gore, Bryant, or Smith. Steven Jackson, however, has a field day.

PICK: St. Louis - 3


Kansas City at Denver - 10 1/2

This is a tough one for KC without starting QB Trent Green, who suffered an injury last week. Larry Johnson will pick up the slack as the Chiefs at least keep it close. Denver may be starting Cutler sooner then we think if Plummer keeps playing like he did in week 1.

PICK: Kansas City + 10 1/2


New England at New York Jets +6

The Jets almost looked like a football team last week vs. The Titans, one of the league's worst teams. When facing one of the league's best teams, the Jets will fall apart. Pennington is probably the most fragile QB in the NFL and it it only a matter of time before his season is over. Look for a big day from Dillon, Maroney, Watson, and Brady.

PICK: New England -6


Tennessee at San Diego - 11 1/2

Well, you k now how I feel about the Titans and the Chargers looked good this past Monday night. They are giving a lot, but the west coast home field advantage is big in this case. Phillip Rivers looked more comfortable that I thought he would and LT is the best running back in the game. They beat up on the Titans like they beat up on the Raiders.

PICK: San Diego - 11 1/2


Washington at Dallas - 5 1/2

Without Portis, the Redskins don't amount to much. He is listed as questionable, and would be a fool to try to rush back from his injury. Dallas looked so-so last week, but Bledsoe will fight like hell to keep his job, which might be in jeopardy. Playing in front of a Texas crowd, Dallas wins out.

PICK: Dallas - 5 1/2


Pittsburgh at Jacksonville pick 'em

What is it with the Steelers and pick em games? The Jags look good, but the Steelers are better. Again, on national TV, the better team wins.

PICK: Pittsburgh


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NCAA Football picks for week 2 (9/7/06 - 9/9/06) - Results

Two picks and 2 wins this week.

Central Florida at Florida - Gators kicked ass and really picked on a weaker opponent.

Ohio State at Texas - Ohio State brought too much for Texas to handle.

This brings my overall college picks to 2-4 for the year. Not that impressive yet, but I'm moving in the right direction.

NFL Football picks for week 1 (9/7/06 - 9/11/06) - Results

Overall, I went 9-7 this week. Yes, I probably could have had the same results flipping a coin, but it's more fun this way.

This week: 9-7 56.25%
Overall: 9-7 56.25%

NFL Football picks for week 1 (9/7/06 - 9/11/06)

Welcome to the first week of my NFL picks. Normally, I will try to make my picks on Thursday or Friday, but since this is opening week and there is a game on Thursday, I've submitted all of my picks today. All of the lines are from Tuesday's edition of the New York Daily News. Now, never mind what you normally would do...

Miami at Pittsburgh

Even though Big Ben is out, I still think the Steelers win this home opener. The Steelers defense is just too good. It will be close though.

PICK: Pittsburgh - Pick em





Atlanta at Carolina -6

A tough game against a division opponent, but the Panthers D wins out containing Michael Vick and Warrick Dunn. Gotta go with the home team here.

PICK: Carolina -6





Baltimore at Tampa Bay -3

Chris Simms shows up and proves to the Ravens that he is ready to be a starting QB. Both teams have quality defenses, but the Bucs have a better offense, especially when the Cadillac starts to run.

PICK: Tampa Bay -3





Buffalo at New England -9

To be honest, I've been a New England Patriot fan since elementary school. I'm never going to root or pick against them. So, in my completely unbiased opinion, they are going to knock the crap out of the Bills this weekend. Losman isn't going to know what hit him, and Corey Dillon is going to be back in his old form.

PICK: New England -9





Cincinnati at Kansas City -3

Both teams have potentially explosive offenses, and this could turn out to be a high scoring game. Since both teams are evenly matched, I'll take the team getting some points.

PICK: Cincinnati +3





Denver at St. Louis + 3 1/2

Even though the Rams have a new coach, they are still a quality team, at home, and getting points. This one is easy.

PICK: St. Louis +3 1/2





New Orleans at Cleveland -3

Charlie Frye may turn out to be a good NFL QB, but not this game. However I think it will be the Saints offense that wins this one. Reggie Bush shows his stuff and the signing of Drew Brees starts to look smarter. Cleveland claims they improved their defense by signing two aging veterans, Ted Washington and Willie McGinest. Someone comes marching in...

PICK: New Orleans +3





New York Jets at Tennessee -3

The Jets are going to struggle this year and it's going to start in Tennessee. This is probably the worst game of the day and I have to watch it since I live in New York. Honestly, both teams suck, but I'll go with the home team.

PICK: Tennessee -3





Philadelphia at Houston + 4

One of these teams is on the way up and the other is on the way down. As Donovan goes, so go the Eagles, but he doesn't do much against the Texans, who are starting to show signs of life. Years of high draft picks do pay off.

PICK: Houston+4





Seattle at Detroit +6

The Seahawks are just too tough of a team for the Lions to handle, even though I think the Lions will be much improved this year with a new coaching regime in place. I'm not a big fan of taking an away team giving points, but I have to do it here.

PICK: Seattle -6





Chicago at Green Bay +3 1/2

The Pack just isn't going to be very good this year, but I guess they always have a chance with Favre. In this game, they make the Bears look better than they really are.

PICK: Chicago -3 1/2





Dallas at Jacksonville -2 1/2

The Cowboys are going to be much improved this year fighting for the NFC East title. A few costly mistakes will wind up costing them the game. Leftwich shows why he was a 1st rounder.

PICK: Jacksonville -2 1/2





San Francisco at Arizona -7 1/2

The Cardinals will compete for the division this year, but giving more than a touchdown is too much. If Warner can keep his head on straight, this could be one of the most explosive offenses in football this season. However, things will start slow in the first game and I'll take the slightly improved 49ers and the points.

PICK: San Francisco +7 1/2





Indianapolis at New York Giants +3

The Manning bowl kicks off Sunday night football on NBC. The Colts are the better team, but I'm going with the Giants to pull off the upset at the Meadowlands.

PICK: New York Giants +3





Minnesota at Washington -4 1/2

This isn't the way to kick off Monday Night Football on ESPN, and I'm glad they are broadcasting a second game this week. Although this might appear to be a defensive struggle, the fact of the matter is that both offenses stink. The Redskins will probably be without Portis for at least a few weeks. I'll go with the team getting a few points.

PICK: Minnesota +4 1/2





San Diego at Oakland +3

Both teams have new QB's, so there are plenty of unknowns here. LT takes over this game and runs all over the Raiders.

PICK: San Diego -3

NCAA Football picks for week 2 (9/7/06 - 9/9/06)

Due to last week's poor performance, I'm only going to pick two college games this week.


Central Florida at Florida

Everyone is talking about year two of an Urban Meyer offense and how it is supposed to excel. Although Chris Leak still doesn't look 100% comfortable in this offense, I think the Gators will be too overpowering for UCF. As long as they don't beat themselves with turnovers, and the defense plays like they should...

PICK: Florida -23





Ohio State at Texas

Last year, this was one of the best games of the regular season. It defined who Texas was and what they could accomplish. This year, Ohio State seems to be the loaded team with Troy Smith and Ted Ginn competing for the Heismann. They will have revenge on their minds when the Buckeyes travel to Austin this weekend for the prime time Saturday night game.

Texas still has a great team, but have a few factors working against them:

1. Vince Young is in the NFL and Texas is starting a freshman QB. Although he looked good last week vs. North Texas, come on, that's North Texas. The skill level required to look good against North Texas compared to the skill level required to look good vs. Ohio State are two very different things.

2. The distractions of the two Longhorns that were arrested this week can't have Mack Brown too thrilled. Both were suspended, and one of them was a starting CB.


I don't think Ohio State has the type of team to blow anyone away, especially Texas, but I do think they pull this one out in a close game.


PICK: Ohio State +2.5

NCAA Football picks for week 1 - results

Wow. I could have flipped a coin and had better results. I'll try to shake this off for week two. Also, I'll post my NFL picks on Wednesday night this week.

I think Lou Holtz said it best when he said, "I'm done reading pre-season magazines." Like me, he picked Cal to beat Tennessee.

NCAA Football picks for week 1 (8/31/06 - 9/4/06)

Each week, I'll select a few keys games and make some predictions. Some will show my biases for Boston College and the University of Florida, but others will be in line with who I think will win. All of my picks will incorporate the spread as of the time I post.

The season officially kicks off Thursday night with my favorite team, Boston College. In the first game of the season, they travel to Central Michigan for what I consider to be a warm-up game before their tough ACC schedule begins the following week vs. Clemson. BC has returning starters at QB and RB, and should be very competitive in the ACC this year. I'm not so sure about Central Michigan.

PICK: Obviously, I'm going with BC -13 1/2.





Aside from the BC game, there are three other games of interest this weekend. You'll notice most top 25 teams playing weaklings and wimps as tune up games. Not these three:

California vs. Tennessee

It's hard to pick against Tennessee at home, but I'm going to do it. The Volunteers had a rough time last year and will be looking to rebound, but Cal is the better team here. Knoxville is a very tough place to play for opposing teams, but I think it is going to take Tennessee a few weeks to get everything going up on old Rocky Top.

PICK: Cal +2





Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech

ND is being picked by a lot of the media as winning the national championship. GT is a decent team with returning starting QB Reggie Ball. However, I think that ND comes out swinging and beats GT by at least two touchdowns. Charlie Weiss is eager to establish the tone for the season early in what could be a national championship run.

PICK: ND - 7 1/2





Florida St vs. Miami

What better way to spend labor day than to end your three day weekend with this annual matchup of powerhouses. I think that the Hurricanes are looking for a little payback after last year's loss. Also, I don't think Miami is going to lose a home opener on National TV, especially against Florida St.

PICK: Miami -3 1/2

My 2006 - 2007 NFL predictions

I know it's a little early, but here are my predictions for each division, conference, and super bowl champ. I'll start by saying that I am a little biased, since I think my favorite team, the New England Patriots, has the ability to go all the way. As long as Bill Belichick is coaching and Tom Brady is the QB, they have a shot. Enough ranting about the Pats for now. Here are my predictions:

AFC East: Patriots (no real surprise here)

AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals - As long as his knee stays healthy, this is Carson Palmer's year.

AFC South: Indianapolis Colts - Is it me, or does Peyton Manning remind anyone else of Dan Marino? He'll break all sorts of passing records, have amazing regular seasons, and is probably a shoe in for Canton. His one flaw: He doesn't seem to have what it takes to win the big one.

AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs - I'll guess we'll see if LJ is for real, or if he is a one season wonder.


NFC East: New York Giants - This is the year that Eli starts playing up to his potential. Barber, Shockey, and Burress all have big seasons.

NFC North: Detroit - What the !%#$&??? Yes, Detroit. They have lots of talent and are in a weak division. Some will say Chicago is the right pick here, but I am going out on a limb. I like the Bears defense, but their offense is questionable.

NFC South: Carolina Panthers - I really like their defense, and they have one of the best receivers in the league (no, not Keyshawn) .

NFC West: Seattle Seahawks - by default. I know they went to the Super Bowl last year, but there isn't going to be much competition in their division. The Cardinals will show signs of life, and probably finish 2nd.


AFC Champion: I think the Patriots edge out the Bengals.

NFC Champion: I know a lot of people are picking Dallas or Seattle here, but I like Carolina.

Super bowl Champion: All biases aside, I like Carolina in an upset rematch over the Patriots.

1st Overall pick in the 2007 draft: There are some good candidates for the worst team in the league. Right off the bat, I'm thinking of the Jets, Texans, 49ers, and Titans. I think both the Texans and 49ers start to climb out of their holes this year and show everyone that years of high draft choices really do pay off. My vote for the biggest loser of the year goes to the Buffalo Bills. They have some quality players like McGahee and Lee Evans, but they have too many other holes that will result in losses. They also play in a tough division, where they can count on two losses to the Patriots, two losses to Miami, and probably a split with the Jets.

Comments?

Investing - Saving for Retirement part 4 - The time factor

Time. Try to define it. Nice try, but you can't. The definition you just thought of was probably a way to measure time, but not a definition of time itself.

Time does, however, have a significant impact on your retirement strategy. Specifically, the number years you contribute to your retirement savings will make a huge difference when it's time to cash out. I read an article once (I'll try to find a link and post it) that showed an example of three different people who invested the same amount of money over different five year periods, then stopped contributing to their retirement account. For the purpose of this example, it is irrelevant whether these people have an IRA vs. a 401K. As long as the money is going into a tax deferred account, this works. The article also assumes a constant rate of return and that each of these people started to cash out at age 65.

Person 1 started to contribute at age 25 and made contributions until age 30.
Person 2 started to contribute at age 35 and made contributions until age 40.
Person 3 started to contribute at age 45 and made contributions until age 50.

After their 5 years on contributing, they never made another contribution again. The overall point of the article is to show the significant difference that person 1 has over person 2 and 3, and that the earlier you start investing, the better off you will be.

Let's plug in some numbers to illustrate the differences. Let's say each person contributes $4000 a year and the average rate of return is 7% per year. At age 65, these are the projected results:

Person 1: $281,179.35
Person 2: $142,937.32
Person 3: $72,662.09

Remember - each person contributed a total of $20,000 ($4000 a year over 5 years), and each portfolio had the same rate of return. The only difference was time, and as you can see, it was
significant. Don't waste it.

I'm glad I didn't pick Portis

In all honesty, I did not do my fantasy draft yet, but I am sure glad I didn't. Clinton Portis was very high on my list of first round draft choices. I learned my lesson a few seasons ago when I drafted Michael Vick with my second round selection. That's the season that he broke his leg and I was stuck with my backup QB the whole season.

Lesson learned: Wait until a few days before the season to do your draft.

Gambling - Blackjack basic strategy

I realized that all of my posts so far have been about investing or football, and I haven't done one on gambling. Although I would like to focus more on poker in some later posts, I will share something I found online regarding blackjack. This is a basic strategy chart. The top row shows the dealer's upcard. The leftmost column shows what you were dealt.

Some casinos will let you print this out and bring it to the table with you. I've even seen this card in the gift shop. But I've also been to casinos (me at a casino? Shocking.) where the dealer does nothing but roll his/her eyes when someone is staring at this during a hand. Your best choice is to memorize this chart. It really isn't that complicated and will seem like common sense to anyone who has ever played before. If you use this strategy on every hand, the casino has an approximate edge of less than 1%.

I know this is hard, but if you get a little bit ahead, make an attempt to walk away from the table with more money than you started with. I can't count how many times I was doing well and decided to keep playing only to lose back what I won. At that point, I usually leave the table breaking even, but furious at myself.

Fantasy Football - DRAFT

Let's keep this post simple:

Free Web poll for your Web site - freepolls.com

Investing - Saving for Retirement part 3 - What should I invest in?

OK, so you've opened a Traditional or Roth IRA. Good. After you send in your check, how should you invest it? Let's assume, for the sake of this post, you are under 40 years of age.

For someone who is busy with other things in life and has limited knowledge of investing, there are two choices that I see as the easiest and most foolproof way to invest your money. Either one works, and the first is slightly more foolproof than the second:

1. Buy a life cycle fund.

These are mutual funds that allocate your money among different funds (sort of like a fund of funds). It allocates in such a way where more money is invested in equity funds when you are younger and more money is invested in fixed income funds as you get closer to retirement. It's sort of like that 'set it and forget it' infomercial. Usually, companies offer a a selection of these funds broken out into 5 year intervals. Pick the one that's closest to the date you want to retire, and you're done. Every 5 years, the fund will re-balance to a more conservative ratio of fixed income to equity, so that when you are nearing retirement age, a bad year in the stock market won't wipe you out.

For example, let's say I will be 65 in the year 2040. One fund that I might choose is the Fidelity Freedom 2040 Fund (FFFFX). Right now, the fund is about 85% invested in equity funds and 15% invested in fixed income funds. Every five years, the fund manager will sell out of some equity funds and purchase more fixed income funds. Plus, this fund has very low fees. As you read on, you'll see why this is important.

Using this approach, you will rarely have to think about what you are investing in. Your most important task is to remember to contribute as close to the maximum you can each year.


2. Buy an index fund.

This is a close second to a life cycle fund. Although you will never beat the market, you will also never fall behind. This is a great example of 'if you can't beat 'em, join 'em'.

First of all, what is an index?

There are lots of them tracked by a number of different financial companies. It's a list of stocks that a company like S&P think represent the overall market sector. It's really meant to be a cross section of stocks that 'track' the market in different areas. There are indices for large cap stocks, mid caps, international, technology, etc.

What is an index fund?

A mutual fund company, like Vanguard, will buy all the stocks in a particular index for one of its mutual funds. You, as an investor, buy the fund which owns the stocks.

The index fund that I am suggesting you buy tracks the overall stock market. Standard & Poor's picks 500 stocks that they feel represent the overall stock market. This is what people are talking about when you hear about the S&P 500 index.

One that I might choose is the Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (VFINX). In addition to being a diversified fund (made up of 500 stocks), it charges very low fees. Since you are not paying a fund manager to pick stocks, there is no reason to pay high fees. Other fund companies offer similar funds, but with double or triple the fees that Vanguard charges. Why pay more for the same product being offered elsewhere for less?

Depending on the source, I've read that anywhere from 85 - 95% of all fund managers do not beat the index each year. These are highly educated people with MBA's that have been around the stock market for years, and they still can't beat the average. This means that they are below average. In addition to less that stellar stockpicking, they also tend to charge fees that are much higher than you'd pay with an index fund. Why not go with the average that no one seems to beat on a regular basis? This way, you can't lose.

Football - Is Maurice Clarett the dumbest former athlete ever?

There is some fierce competition here - Lawrence Phillips and OJ come to mind, I'm voting Maurice Clarett as the dumbest athlete (or former athlete) ever.

Clarett got arrested in Columbus, OH again. This time, he got pulled over and the police found him wearing a bullet proof best with four loaded guns in the car. Who knows what his actual intentions were, but they could not have been good. Oh yeah, they also found an open bottle of vodka in the car.

Earlier this year, he robbed two people, at gunpoint, behind a Columbus bar.

Why is this guy still hanging around Columbus, OH? It's probably the only city in America where everyone knows who he is, since he was once a star athlete at Ohio State (located in Columbus). For the two people that he robbed, it wasn't that hard to identify the guy who did it.

For someone who showed so much promise as a freshman, someone who was the star of the BCS championship game that year, his football career after that game was one dumb decision after another. First, he winds up getting kicked off the Ohio State team after filing false police reports that $10,000 worth of stuff was stolen out of his car.

Next, he challenges the NFL on their draft eligibility rules, and ultimately loses. The following year, he is overweight and out of shape at a workout attended by NFL scouts. Despite this, the Denver Broncos decide to take a chance on him by drafting him in the third round of the 2005 draft. Continuing the trend, he shows up to Broncos camp out of shape. During training camp and the pre-season, he plays like crap, when he wasn't watching from the sidelines with a groin injury. Before the season started, Denver cut him.

As an NFL running back, if you can't run in Denver's offence, you have a serious problem. Mike Anderson is a star there. Even Quentin Griffin had a few (very brief) flashes of brilliance. And if you can believe it, Ron Dayne is playing well there. Yes, the same Ron Dayne who couldn't hit a hole for the Giants.

Maurice, congratulations. You are finally where you belong: jail.

Investing - Saving for Retirement part 2 - IRA's

If you do not have a company sponsored retirement plan (401K, 403B, Pension), saving for retirement in a traditional IRA might be right for you, since there are tax benefits. Although the limits on what you can contribute are much lower than a 401K, you really don't have too many other options.

However, a Roth IRA, in my opinion, is a much better option for everyone, including those who have a company sponsored plan. Here's are some of the differences that illustrate why:

A traditional IRA is funded with pre-tax money. A Roth IRA is funded with after tax money.

What this means:

If your company does not have a plan, you can contribute money to your traditional IRA and write the amount off on your taxes. When you get old and start taking distributions, you pay tax on the money then. The theory is that when you are no longer working, your tax bracket will be lower, and you will pay less in taxes. I think this theory is flawed, due to the growth factor, which is summarized below.

Money you contribute to a Roth IRA cannot be written off your taxes, but since you funded your account with after tax money (meaning you already paid income taxes on that money), when you withdraw the money, it's tax free.

Over time, either IRA will grow at a rate of 6%-8% a year, on average. Over the course of 30 years, when you are ready to withdraw the money, you don't pay income tax or capital gains tax. The money is yours, free and clear.

If I had to recommend an account to open, the Roth IRA is my choice. Look for a low cost provider such as Vanguard or Fidelity. These companies don't charge any account maintenance fees if your balance is above a certain amount.

All right, so you've opened an account. Now what should you invest in? Next post...

Investing - Saving for retirement

One of the dumbest things I hear from people is that they have little to no retirement savings. Most of these people (I won't name names) are under 35 years old and don' t think that they will ever be old. One of the biggest assets any college graduate with a job has is the ability and upward potential to earn money. When a person is 70 years old, for the most part, that ability greatly diminishes. Unless you were (or are) a top C level employee (CEO, CFO, COO, etc.), your ability and desire to have an active career is questionable when you reach that age. What you should be worried about is what time you tee off and how to snag a free buffet at the casino.

Here are the steps to make this all possible:

For the sake of this argument, let's assume that you are an adult with a full time job.


The first thing you should do is take advantage of your company sponsored 401K and/or Profit Sharing plan. There are a lot of companies out there that match your contributions up to a certain percentage. Not contributing is throwing away free money.

What this means: Let's say your company matches your contributions up to 5%. If you contribute 5% of your salary to your 401K, your company will also throw in 5%. This is an automatic 100% return on your investment.

Some other notes about 401K plans:

• Try to contribute as much as you can, and as early as you can. The biggest factor to saving for retirement is time. More on this in a later post.
• Don't chase 'hot' funds. An index fund or time target fund should do the trick. More on this in a later post.
• If you are a public employee, a 403B plan is similar to a 401k plan.
• Yes, it's true, but some employers do not offer any type of retirement plan. This kind of sucks, but is common with certain types of small to medium sized businesses. My next few investing posts will be on some other options like:
  
  Roth IRA's
  Regular IRA's
  Other investments

Football

Today is August 6, and the NFL preseason officially starts today. For those of us who sorely miss football, the first quarter of this game will be great. After that, all of the second and third string players start to get in the game, and all you are left with is the equivalent to a CFL game. The only exception to this is any rookies we may see tonight who are looking to impress.

Welcome

This is the first post to this blog, which will be dedicated to all the things that I love. This includes Football (both college and pro), Investing, Gambling, Cigars, and anything else I feel like writing about.